or much else).Ĭomment by GwiezAccording to blizzard, the seahorses in Dread Wastes have a chance to drop Pattern: High Society Top Hat and Design: Rhinestone Sunglasses. ) This is apparently called Bayes' Theorem (I had to look that up, I vaguely remembered the method of calculating percent over attempts but not what it's called. That's why it's probability, and not certainty. You are not guaranteed 63 successes you are not guaranteed anything. So at the end of 10,000 tries, you will have had a 63% chance of success - that means one person killing 10,000 things has a 63% chance of seeing ONE drop by the end of 10k tries. the second is the probability of you not getting the drop, over ten thousand events: The first part is your chance of getting the drop, 10 thousand times. So to find the probability of success over 10,000 tries, we have to do this the following. The percent of failure, therefore, is 99.99% - expressed as a fraction, that's 0.9999 - still with me?
![rhinestone glasses rhinestone glasses](https://sep.yimg.com/ay/yhst-43237354811846/vintage-style-cat-eye-rhinestone-glasses-36.jpg)
(Number of tries multiplied by the FRACTIONAL equivalent of the PERCENT chance of success), minus the (FRACTIONAL equivalent of the PERCENT chance of failure, risen to the power of tries).Ī percent chance of 0.01% is a fraction of 0.0001 - that's success. The chance of something happening over, like OP says, 10000 tries is expressed as: You already know that 23% is not expressed as 23.00 1% is not expressed as 1.0 so 0.01% cannot possibly be expressed as 0.01. OP's "logic" is not "irrefutable" because it has nothing to do with an intuitive guess confused the percent chance of success with the decimal expression of that percentage. "0.01%" is not the same as a decimal of 0.01.
![rhinestone glasses rhinestone glasses](https://image.made-in-china.com/202f0j00MCDGialIJrqc/Wholesale-Diamond-Frames-Women-s-Diamond-Designer-Rhinestone-Shades-Womens-Sunglasses.jpg)
The problem is you are confusing the percentages with decimals.